www.people-press.org THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2010 Few Aware of TARP Repayment, Inflation Rate Public Knows Basic Facts about Politics, Economics, But Struggles with Specifics FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut President, Pew Research Center Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock Associate Directors Scott Keeter Director of Survey Research 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399 www.peoplepress.org Take the Latest Quiz Online! Before you read the report, we invite you to test your own News IQ by taking the latest interactive knowledge quiz now available on the Pew Research Center website. The short quiz includes many of the questions that were included in a national poll. Participants will instantly learn how they did on the quiz in comparison with the general public as well as with people like them. To take the latest quiz, click on this link: http://pewresearch.org/politicalquiz/ 1 www.people-press.org 14 15 16 26 38 39 41 46 53 64 75 77 88 Ran oil well that exploded in Gulf? (BP) Deficit compared with 90s is... (Larger) Seen as winning 2010 elections? (Reps) Int'l trade: US buys/sells more? (Buys) Current unemployment rate? (10%) Reps will have majority in... (House) New House speaker will be? (Boehner) India-Pakistan relations? (Unfriendly) US gov't spends more on... (Defense) Google's phone software? (Android) TARP loans repaid? (More than half) PM of Great Britain is... (Cameron) Current inflation rate? (1%) Few Aware of TARP Repayment, Inflation Rate Public Knows Basic Facts about Politics, Economics, But Struggles with Specifics The public sees the big picture when it comes to the changing balance of power in Washington. Fully 75% say that the Republican Party is generally regarded as doing best in this month's midterm elections. Far fewer know the specifics about the GOP's victories. Fewer than half (46%) know that the Republicans will have a majority only in the House of Representatives when the new Congress convenes in January, while 38% can identify John Boehner as the incoming House Speaker. The Pew Research Center's latest News IQ Quiz, conducted Nov. 11-14 among 1,001 adults, finds a similar pattern in the public's knowledge about economics. The quiz is composed of 13 multiple-choice questions about current events. Nearly eight-in-ten (77%) say correctly that the federal budget deficit is larger than it was in the 1990s and 64% know that in recent years the United States has bought more foreign goods than it has sold overseas. As in recent knowledge surveys, about half (53%) estimate the current unemployment rate at about 10%. But the public continues to struggle with questions about the bank bailout program known as the TARP: Just 16% say, correctly, that more than half of loans made to banks under the TARP have been paid back; an identical percentage says that none has been What the Public Knows Percent who know… PEW RESEARCH CENTER Nov. 11-14, 2010. 2 www.people-press.org paid back. In Pew's previous knowledge survey in July, just 34% knew that the TARP was enacted under the Bush administration. (See "Well Known: Twitter; Little Known: John Roberts," July 15, 2010.) The new survey finds that an overwhelming percentage (88%) identify BP as the company that operated the oil well that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this year. But as in the past, the public shows little awareness of international developments: 41% say that relations between India and Pakistan are generally considered to be unfriendly; 12% say relations between the two long-time rivals are friendly, 20% say they are neutral and 27% do not know. Just 15% know that David Cameron is the prime minister of Great Britain; about as many say it is Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP. The proportion correctly identifying Cameron as the British prime minister is about the same now as it was in July (19%). On a different subject, 26% of Americans know that Android is the name of the Google operating system for smartphones. As in past news quiz questions about technology, there is a sizable age gap in awareness of Android. Far more people under age 50 (37%) than those ages 50 and older (11%) correctly identify Android as the Google phone's operating system. 3 www.people-press.org Fewer than Half Know GOP Won House While 75% identify the Republicans as the party regarded as doing best in the midterms, fewer than half (46%) know that Republicans will have a majority only in the House when the new Congress convenes in January. About one-in-seven (14%) say the GOP won both the House and Senate; 8% say they won just the Senate; 5% do not think they will have a majority in either chamber; and 27% do not know. There is broad awareness among most political and demographic groups that the Republicans did best in the midterms. But just 27% of those younger than 30 know that Republicans captured just the House; 19% say that they won both the House and Senate while 42% do not know. By contrast, 45% of those 30 to 49, and majorities of those 50 to 64 (55%) and 65 and older (57%), answered this question correctly. While 69% of college graduates know that the Republicans won only the House, fewer than half as many (31%) of those with no more than a high school education know this. And while nearly as many women (72%) as men (79%) know that the GOP is generally regarded as having done best in the elections, just 39% of women know that the Republicans won just the House, compared with 53% of men. Most Know GOP Did Well, Far Fewer Know How Well Reps seen as winners Reps have House Majority N % % Total 75 46 1001 Men 79 53 447 Women 72 39 554 White 78 49 769 Black 67 37 105 18-29 61 27 144 30-49 76 45 260 50-64 81 55 286 65+ 79 57 282 College grad+ 85 69 332 Some college 80 46 263 HS or less 66 31 398 Republican 88 55 292 Democrat 77 45 286 Independent 71 46 312 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Nov. 11-14, 2010. Pew.8 & Pew 9 were asked in sequence. All other items in the survey were asked randomly. 4 www.people-press.org Most Know Deficit Has Grown On the subject of government spending, many Americans (77%) are aware that the U.S. has a larger budget deficit today than in the 1990s, yet far fewer correctly answer a question about what the government spends more on: national defense, education, Medicare or interest on the national debt. Roughly equal proportions of Republicans (81%), Democrats (78%) and independents (78%) know that the federal budget deficit is larger now than in the 1990s. Overall, 39% of the public know that the government spends more on national defense than on education, Medicare or interest on the national debt. About one-in-four (23%) say the government spends more on interest payments and 15% say Medicare is the largest expenditure of these four alternatives. Government accounting estimates indicate that the government spends about twice as much on defense than on Medicare, and more than four times as much on defense as on interest on the debt. More Democrats (46%) than Republicans (28%) know that the government spends more on national defense than the other items listed. Republicans are as likely to say the government spends most on interest on the debt (29%) as on defense (28%). A plurality of independents (44%) know that the government spends most on national defense. Bigger Deficit Seen, But Few Know Where the Money Goes Compared to the 1990s, the deficit is… Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Larger 77 81 78 78 Smaller 3 3 5 3 No different 9 6 12 6 Don't know 11 10 5 12 100 100 100 100 Federal gov't spends most on… National defense 39 28 46 44 Education 4 5 5 3 Medicare 15 17 18 14 Interest on debt 23 29 18 22 Don't know 19 20 13 16 100 100 100 100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW14 & PEW17. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. 5 www.people-press.org Partisan Differences in Knowledge About six-in-ten Republicans (63%) correctly estimated the unemployment rate at about 10%, compared with 48% of Democrats. There also is a wide partisan gap in awareness of the U.S. trade deficit: 72% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats say that the U.S. buys more good from abroad that it sells. Republicans also are more likely to know than the GOP was perceived as winning the midterms and to know that the Republicans won a majority in the House. And while only about half of Republicans (47%) could identify John Boehner as the next House Speaker, slightly fewer Democrats (38%) know this. Republicans and Democrats each are largely unaware of how much of the TARP loans have been repaid and relatively few in both parties estimated the inflation rate at about 1%. As noted, more Democrats than Republicans know that the government spends more on national defense than on interest on the national debt, Medicare or education. More Republicans Correctly Estimate Unemployment Rate % answering correctly… Rep Dem Ind R-D diff % % % Current unemployment rate? (10%) 63 48 54 +15 Int'l trade: US buys/sells more? (Buys) 72 58 67 +14 Seen as winning 2010 elections? (Reps) 88 77 71 +11 Reps will have majority in… (House) 55 45 46 +10 New House speaker will be? (Boehner) 47 38 39 +9 India, Pakistan relations? (Unfriendly) 45 40 43 +5 Deficit compared with 90s is... (Larger) 81 78 78 +3 Ran oil well that exploded in Gulf? (BP) 90 90 89 0 PM of Great Britain is... (Cameron) 14 14 18 0 Google's phone software? (Android) 23 24 29 -1 TARP loans repaid? (More than half) 16 17 17 -1 Current inflation rate? (1%) 14 15 16 -1 US gov't spends most on... (Defense) 28 46 44 -18 PEW RESEARCH CENTER. Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW5-PEW19. 6 www.people-press.org The Knowledge Age Gap As in previous knowledge quizzes, young people struggle with many questions about politics, economics and foreign affairs. Just 14% of those younger than 30 know that John Boehner will be the next House speaker; about as many (19%) say it will be Nancy Pelosi, the current speaker. Among older age groups, Boehner is far better known. Just 27% of those under 30 say Republicans will have a majority in the House, while the same percentage (27%) says that India-Pakistan relations are generally regarded as unfriendly. On each question, at least four-in-ten among older age groups answered correctly. However, 45% of those under 30 know that the government spends most on national defense, about the same percentage as those 30 to 49 (41%) and slightly higher than those 50 and older (35%). And about four-in-ten young people (42%) know that Android is the operating system for Google smartphones, compared with 34% of those 30 to 49, 16% of those 50 to 54, and just 4% of those 65 and older. Young People Less Knowledgeable about Politics, More Aware of Android % answering correctly… 18- 29 30- 49 50- 64 65+ Old- young diff % % % % New House speaker will be? (Boehner) 14 39 48 51 +37 Reps will have majority in… (House) 27 45 55 57 +30 India, Pakistan relations? (Unfriendly) 27 42 46 46 +19 Seen as winning 2010 elections? (Reps) 61 76 81 79 +18 Current unemployment rate? (10%) 43 52 57 60 +17 Int'l trade: US buys/sells more? (Buys) 54 63 74 68 +14 TARP loans repaid? (More than half) 7 16 20 19 +12 Current inflation rate? (1%) 4 13 21 16 +12 Deficit compared with 90s is... (Larger) 66 78 82 77 +11 PM of Great Britain is... (Cameron) 10 14 16 19 +9 Ran oil well that exploded in Gulf? (BP) 80 92 90 86 +6 U.S. gov't spends most on... (Defense) 45 41 35 33 -12 Google's phone software? (Android) 42 34 16 4 -38 PEW RESEARCH CENTER. Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW5-PEW19. 7 www.people-press.org Comparing Knowledge on Average An alternative way of comparing quiz performance across groups is to look at the average results. Twelve of the 13 items on the test form a knowledge scale for this installment of the Pew News IQ quiz. Each question is worth one point on the scale ranging from zero (none right) to 12 (a perfect score). This was a difficult quiz. Americans answered an average of five out of twelve questions correctly. That means the public averaged fewer than half right answers (42%). Illustrating the difficulty of some questions, less than one percent of the public answered twelve correctly while 4% missed them all. College graduates did much better on average than those with some or no college experience. Those with college degrees answered an average of 6.8 questions correctly, compared with 3.8 on average for those with a high school degree or less education. College graduates did better on almost every question in the quiz. One exception was the item about government spending. Roughly four-in-ten of both college graduates (41%) and those with no college experience (38%) knew that the government spends more on defense than the alternatives offered. As described above, older Americans did significantly better than young people. Quiz takers 65 and older correctly answered 5.3 questions on average while those under 30 averaged four right answers. Republicans did somewhat better than Democrats on average. How the Public Scored on the Pew News IQ Quiz Average # Correct out of 12 questions Total 5.0 Men 5.6 Women 4.5 White 5.3 Black 3.8 18-29 4.0 30-49 5.1 50-64 5.5 65+ 5.3 College grad+ 6.8 Some college 5.2 HS or less 3.8 Republican 5.5 Democrat 5.0 Independent 5.2 Correctly answered at least… % 2 questions 89 4 questions 69 6 questions 41 8 questions 22 10 questions 6 All 12 questions Less than 1% PEW RESEARCH CENTER. Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW5-PEW19. 8 www.people-press.org About the Survey Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted November 11-14, 2010 among a national sample of 1,001 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (670 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 331 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 136 who had no landline telephone). Interviewing was conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: http://people-press.org/methodology/ The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2009 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2009 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. 9 www.people-press.org About the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is an independent opinion research group that studies attitudes toward the press, politics and public policy issues. We are sponsored by The Pew Charitable Trusts and are one of seven projects that make up the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The Center's purpose is to serve as a forum for ideas on the media and public policy through public opinion research. In this role it serves as an important information resource for political leaders, journalists, scholars, and public interest organizations. All of our current survey results are made available free of charge. All of the Center's research and reports are collaborative products based on the input and analysis of the entire Center staff consisting of: Andrew Kohut, Director Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors Michael Remez, Senior Writer Leah Christian and Jocelyn Kiley, Senior Researchers Robert Suls, Shawn Neidorf, and Alec Tyson, Research Associates Jacob Poushter, Research Analyst Danielle Gewurz, Research Assistant ? Pew Research Center, 2010 10 www.peoplepress.org PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE UPDATE FINAL TOPLINE NOVEMBER 11-14, 2010 N=1001 PEW.1 AND PEW.4 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE READ TO ALL: Next I'd like to ask about some things that have been in the news. Please answer as best you can. If you don't know the answer just tell me and we'll move to the next question. RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.5 Who is likely to be the next Speaker of the House when the new congress convenes in January? Is it [READ AND RANDOMIZE] TREND FOR COMPARISON: Nov 11-14 Dec 4-7 Aug 16-19 2010 20081 2007 38 John Boehner (Correct) 72 Nancy Pelosi (Correct) 74 Nancy Pelosi (Correct) 13 Nancy Pelosi 3 Dennis Hastert 5 Dennis Hastert 4 Newt Gingrich 3 Barbara Boxer 7 Barbara Boxer 7 Mitch McConnell 3 Eric Holder 5 Scooter Libby 38 DK/Refused (VOL.) 19 DK/Refused (VOL.) 9 DK/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.6 Can you tell me who the Prime Minister of Great Britain is? Is it… [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 Jul 1-5 Apr 30-Jun 1 2010 2010 2008 15 David Cameron (Correct) 19 28 Gordon Brown (Correct) 2 Angela Merkel 2 5 Rupert Murdoch 18 Tony Hayward 17 4 Robert Gates 5 Richard Branson 4 5 John Howard 60 DK/Ref (VOL.) 57 58 DK/Ref (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.7 Are relations between India and Pakistan generally considered to be…[READ IN ORDER] Nov 11-14 2010 12 Friendly 41 Unfriendly (Correct) 20 Neutral 27 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) ASK PEW.8 AND PEW.9 IN ORDER AS A PAIR, RANDOMIZE WITH OTHER ITEMS ASK ALL: PEW.8 Generally, which political party was regarded as doing best in the midterm elections last week? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 10 Democrats 75 Republicans (Correct) 15 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 1 For December 4-7, 2010 and August 16-19, 2007 the question read: "Do you happen to know the name of the current Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives?" 11 www.peoplepress.org ASK PEW.8 AND PEW.9 IN ORDER AS A PAIR, RANDOMIZE WITH OTHER ITEMS ASK ALL: PEW.9 When the new Congress convenes in January, will Republicans have a majority in… [READ IN ORDER] Nov 11-14 2010 46 The House of Representatives (Correct) 8 The Senate 14 Both the House and Senate 5 Neither the House nor the Senate 27 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.10 The federal government loaned money to banks under the bank bailout program known as TARP. How much of that money has been paid back to the government? [READ; READ CATEGORIES IN REVERSE ORDER FOR HALF THE SAMPLE] Nov 11-14 2010 4 All of it 16 More than half of it (Correct) 36 Less than half of it 16 None of it 28 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) NO QUESTIONS PEW.11-PEW.12 RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.13 In the past few years, have people in the U.S. bought more foreign goods than we have sold overseas, or have we sold more than we have bought, or has it pretty much balanced out? Nov 11-14 Feb 1-13 May 2010 20072 1989 64 Bought more foreign goods than sold (Correct) 68 81 4 Sold more overseas than bought 7 5 11 Balanced out 9 6 20 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 16 8 RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.14 Compared to the 1990s, is the current federal budget deficit [RANDOMIZE: larger, smaller] or is it no different? Nov 11-14 2010 77 Larger (Correct) 3 Smaller 9 No different 11 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 2 For February 1-13, 2007 and May, 1989 the question read: "…Have people in the U.S. bought more foreign goods than we have sold to people overseas, or have we sold more to them than we have bought, or has it pretty much balanced out?" 12 www.peoplepress.org RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.15 Do you happen to know which company operated the oil well that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico last spring? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 88 BP (Correct) 2 Exxon/Mobil 1 Chevron 1 Shell 7 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.16 Do you happen to know the name of the Google operating system for smartphones? Is it… [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 26 Android (Correct) 8 iPhone 4 Windows Mobile 8 Blackberry 54 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.17 On which of these activities does the US government currently spend the most money? Is it… [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 39 National defense (Correct) 4 Education 15 Medicare 23 Interest on the national debt 19 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.18 Do you happen to know if the national inflation rate reported by the government is closer to…[READ IN ORDER] Nov 11-14 2010 14 1% (Correct) 15 5% 15 10% 7 20% 49 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 13 www.peoplepress.org RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.19 Do you happen to know if the national unemployment rate as reported by the government is currently closer to [READ IN ORDER]? Nov 11-14 Jul 1-5 Jan 14-17 Oct 1-4 Mar 26-29 2010 2010 20103 2009 2009 3 5% 3 2 4 3 4% 53 10% (Correct) 54 55 53 53 8% (Correct) 16 15% 16 15 15 24 12% 11 20% 10 15 18 18 16% 17 DK/Refused (VOL.) 18 12 10 2 DK/Refused (VOL.) ASK ALL: PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? ASK IF ANSWERED 3, 4, 5 OR 9 IN PARTY: PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Lean Lean Republican Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref Rep Dem Nov 11-14, 2010 26 29 33 8 1 4 14 14 3 For January 14-17, 2010 and before the question did not include the phrase: "… as reported by the government…"
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www.people-press.org THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 18, 2010 Few Aware of TARP Repayment, Inflation Rate Public Knows Basic Facts about Politics, Economics, But Struggles with Specifics FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut President, Pew Research Center Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock Associate Directors Scott Keeter Director of Survey Research 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-4350 Fax (202) 419-4399 www.peoplepress.org Take the Latest Quiz Online! Before you read the report, we invite you to test your own News IQ by taking the latest interactive knowledge quiz now available on the Pew Research Center website. The short quiz includes many of the questions that were included in a national poll. Participants will instantly learn how they did on the quiz in comparison with the general public as well as with people like them. To take the latest quiz, click on this link: http://pewresearch.org/politicalquiz/ 1 www.people-press.org 14 15 16 26 38 39 41 46 53 64 75 77 88 Ran oil well that exploded in Gulf? (BP) Deficit compared with 90s is... (Larger) Seen as winning 2010 elections? (Reps) Int'l trade: US buys/sells more? (Buys) Current unemployment rate? (10%) Reps will have majority in... (House) New House speaker will be? (Boehner) India-Pakistan relations? (Unfriendly) US gov't spends more on... (Defense) Google's phone software? (Android) TARP loans repaid? (More than half) PM of Great Britain is... (Cameron) Current inflation rate? (1%) Few Aware of TARP Repayment, Inflation Rate Public Knows Basic Facts about Politics, Economics, But Struggles with Specifics The public sees the big picture when it comes to the changing balance of power in Washington. Fully 75% say that the Republican Party is generally regarded as doing best in this month's midterm elections. Far fewer know the specifics about the GOP's victories. Fewer than half (46%) know that the Republicans will have a majority only in the House of Representatives when the new Congress convenes in January, while 38% can identify John Boehner as the incoming House Speaker. The Pew Research Center's latest News IQ Quiz, conducted Nov. 11-14 among 1,001 adults, finds a similar pattern in the public's knowledge about economics. The quiz is composed of 13 multiple-choice questions about current events. Nearly eight-in-ten (77%) say correctly that the federal budget deficit is larger than it was in the 1990s and 64% know that in recent years the United States has bought more foreign goods than it has sold overseas. As in recent knowledge surveys, about half (53%) estimate the current unemployment rate at about 10%. But the public continues to struggle with questions about the bank bailout program known as the TARP: Just 16% say, correctly, that more than half of loans made to banks under the TARP have been paid back; an identical percentage says that none has been What the Public Knows Percent who know… PEW RESEARCH CENTER Nov. 11-14, 2010. 2 www.people-press.org paid back. In Pew's previous knowledge survey in July, just 34% knew that the TARP was enacted under the Bush administration. (See "Well Known: Twitter; Little Known: John Roberts," July 15, 2010.) The new survey finds that an overwhelming percentage (88%) identify BP as the company that operated the oil well that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this year. But as in the past, the public shows little awareness of international developments: 41% say that relations between India and Pakistan are generally considered to be unfriendly; 12% say relations between the two long-time rivals are friendly, 20% say they are neutral and 27% do not know. Just 15% know that David Cameron is the prime minister of Great Britain; about as many say it is Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP. The proportion correctly identifying Cameron as the British prime minister is about the same now as it was in July (19%). On a different subject, 26% of Americans know that Android is the name of the Google operating system for smartphones. As in past news quiz questions about technology, there is a sizable age gap in awareness of Android. Far more people under age 50 (37%) than those ages 50 and older (11%) correctly identify Android as the Google phone's operating system. 3 www.people-press.org Fewer than Half Know GOP Won House While 75% identify the Republicans as the party regarded as doing best in the midterms, fewer than half (46%) know that Republicans will have a majority only in the House when the new Congress convenes in January. About one-in-seven (14%) say the GOP won both the House and Senate; 8% say they won just the Senate; 5% do not think they will have a majority in either chamber; and 27% do not know. There is broad awareness among most political and demographic groups that the Republicans did best in the midterms. But just 27% of those younger than 30 know that Republicans captured just the House; 19% say that they won both the House and Senate while 42% do not know. By contrast, 45% of those 30 to 49, and majorities of those 50 to 64 (55%) and 65 and older (57%), answered this question correctly. While 69% of college graduates know that the Republicans won only the House, fewer than half as many (31%) of those with no more than a high school education know this. And while nearly as many women (72%) as men (79%) know that the GOP is generally regarded as having done best in the elections, just 39% of women know that the Republicans won just the House, compared with 53% of men. Most Know GOP Did Well, Far Fewer Know How Well Reps seen as winners Reps have House Majority N % % Total 75 46 1001 Men 79 53 447 Women 72 39 554 White 78 49 769 Black 67 37 105 18-29 61 27 144 30-49 76 45 260 50-64 81 55 286 65+ 79 57 282 College grad+ 85 69 332 Some college 80 46 263 HS or less 66 31 398 Republican 88 55 292 Democrat 77 45 286 Independent 71 46 312 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Nov. 11-14, 2010. Pew.8 & Pew 9 were asked in sequence. All other items in the survey were asked randomly. 4 www.people-press.org Most Know Deficit Has Grown On the subject of government spending, many Americans (77%) are aware that the U.S. has a larger budget deficit today than in the 1990s, yet far fewer correctly answer a question about what the government spends more on: national defense, education, Medicare or interest on the national debt. Roughly equal proportions of Republicans (81%), Democrats (78%) and independents (78%) know that the federal budget deficit is larger now than in the 1990s. Overall, 39% of the public know that the government spends more on national defense than on education, Medicare or interest on the national debt. About one-in-four (23%) say the government spends more on interest payments and 15% say Medicare is the largest expenditure of these four alternatives. Government accounting estimates indicate that the government spends about twice as much on defense than on Medicare, and more than four times as much on defense as on interest on the debt. More Democrats (46%) than Republicans (28%) know that the government spends more on national defense than the other items listed. Republicans are as likely to say the government spends most on interest on the debt (29%) as on defense (28%). A plurality of independents (44%) know that the government spends most on national defense. Bigger Deficit Seen, But Few Know Where the Money Goes Compared to the 1990s, the deficit is… Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % Larger 77 81 78 78 Smaller 3 3 5 3 No different 9 6 12 6 Don't know 11 10 5 12 100 100 100 100 Federal gov't spends most on… National defense 39 28 46 44 Education 4 5 5 3 Medicare 15 17 18 14 Interest on debt 23 29 18 22 Don't know 19 20 13 16 100 100 100 100 PEW RESEARCH CENTER Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW14 & PEW17. Figures may not add to 100% because of rounding. 5 www.people-press.org Partisan Differences in Knowledge About six-in-ten Republicans (63%) correctly estimated the unemployment rate at about 10%, compared with 48% of Democrats. There also is a wide partisan gap in awareness of the U.S. trade deficit: 72% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats say that the U.S. buys more good from abroad that it sells. Republicans also are more likely to know than the GOP was perceived as winning the midterms and to know that the Republicans won a majority in the House. And while only about half of Republicans (47%) could identify John Boehner as the next House Speaker, slightly fewer Democrats (38%) know this. Republicans and Democrats each are largely unaware of how much of the TARP loans have been repaid and relatively few in both parties estimated the inflation rate at about 1%. As noted, more Democrats than Republicans know that the government spends more on national defense than on interest on the national debt, Medicare or education. More Republicans Correctly Estimate Unemployment Rate % answering correctly… Rep Dem Ind R-D diff % % % Current unemployment rate? (10%) 63 48 54 +15 Int'l trade: US buys/sells more? (Buys) 72 58 67 +14 Seen as winning 2010 elections? (Reps) 88 77 71 +11 Reps will have majority in… (House) 55 45 46 +10 New House speaker will be? (Boehner) 47 38 39 +9 India, Pakistan relations? (Unfriendly) 45 40 43 +5 Deficit compared with 90s is... (Larger) 81 78 78 +3 Ran oil well that exploded in Gulf? (BP) 90 90 89 0 PM of Great Britain is... (Cameron) 14 14 18 0 Google's phone software? (Android) 23 24 29 -1 TARP loans repaid? (More than half) 16 17 17 -1 Current inflation rate? (1%) 14 15 16 -1 US gov't spends most on... (Defense) 28 46 44 -18 PEW RESEARCH CENTER. Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW5-PEW19. 6 www.people-press.org The Knowledge Age Gap As in previous knowledge quizzes, young people struggle with many questions about politics, economics and foreign affairs. Just 14% of those younger than 30 know that John Boehner will be the next House speaker; about as many (19%) say it will be Nancy Pelosi, the current speaker. Among older age groups, Boehner is far better known. Just 27% of those under 30 say Republicans will have a majority in the House, while the same percentage (27%) says that India-Pakistan relations are generally regarded as unfriendly. On each question, at least four-in-ten among older age groups answered correctly. However, 45% of those under 30 know that the government spends most on national defense, about the same percentage as those 30 to 49 (41%) and slightly higher than those 50 and older (35%). And about four-in-ten young people (42%) know that Android is the operating system for Google smartphones, compared with 34% of those 30 to 49, 16% of those 50 to 54, and just 4% of those 65 and older. Young People Less Knowledgeable about Politics, More Aware of Android % answering correctly… 18- 29 30- 49 50- 64 65+ Old- young diff % % % % New House speaker will be? (Boehner) 14 39 48 51 +37 Reps will have majority in… (House) 27 45 55 57 +30 India, Pakistan relations? (Unfriendly) 27 42 46 46 +19 Seen as winning 2010 elections? (Reps) 61 76 81 79 +18 Current unemployment rate? (10%) 43 52 57 60 +17 Int'l trade: US buys/sells more? (Buys) 54 63 74 68 +14 TARP loans repaid? (More than half) 7 16 20 19 +12 Current inflation rate? (1%) 4 13 21 16 +12 Deficit compared with 90s is... (Larger) 66 78 82 77 +11 PM of Great Britain is... (Cameron) 10 14 16 19 +9 Ran oil well that exploded in Gulf? (BP) 80 92 90 86 +6 U.S. gov't spends most on... (Defense) 45 41 35 33 -12 Google's phone software? (Android) 42 34 16 4 -38 PEW RESEARCH CENTER. Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW5-PEW19. 7 www.people-press.org Comparing Knowledge on Average An alternative way of comparing quiz performance across groups is to look at the average results. Twelve of the 13 items on the test form a knowledge scale for this installment of the Pew News IQ quiz. Each question is worth one point on the scale ranging from zero (none right) to 12 (a perfect score). This was a difficult quiz. Americans answered an average of five out of twelve questions correctly. That means the public averaged fewer than half right answers (42%). Illustrating the difficulty of some questions, less than one percent of the public answered twelve correctly while 4% missed them all. College graduates did much better on average than those with some or no college experience. Those with college degrees answered an average of 6.8 questions correctly, compared with 3.8 on average for those with a high school degree or less education. College graduates did better on almost every question in the quiz. One exception was the item about government spending. Roughly four-in-ten of both college graduates (41%) and those with no college experience (38%) knew that the government spends more on defense than the alternatives offered. As described above, older Americans did significantly better than young people. Quiz takers 65 and older correctly answered 5.3 questions on average while those under 30 averaged four right answers. Republicans did somewhat better than Democrats on average. How the Public Scored on the Pew News IQ Quiz Average # Correct out of 12 questions Total 5.0 Men 5.6 Women 4.5 White 5.3 Black 3.8 18-29 4.0 30-49 5.1 50-64 5.5 65+ 5.3 College grad+ 6.8 Some college 5.2 HS or less 3.8 Republican 5.5 Democrat 5.0 Independent 5.2 Correctly answered at least… % 2 questions 89 4 questions 69 6 questions 41 8 questions 22 10 questions 6 All 12 questions Less than 1% PEW RESEARCH CENTER. Nov. 11-14, 2010. PEW5-PEW19. 8 www.people-press.org About the Survey Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted November 11-14, 2010 among a national sample of 1,001 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (670 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 331 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 136 who had no landline telephone). Interviewing was conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: http://people-press.org/methodology/ The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2009 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2009 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey: In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. 9 www.people-press.org About the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press is an independent opinion research group that studies attitudes toward the press, politics and public policy issues. We are sponsored by The Pew Charitable Trusts and are one of seven projects that make up the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan "fact tank" that provides information on the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. The Center's purpose is to serve as a forum for ideas on the media and public policy through public opinion research. In this role it serves as an important information resource for political leaders, journalists, scholars, and public interest organizations. All of our current survey results are made available free of charge. All of the Center's research and reports are collaborative products based on the input and analysis of the entire Center staff consisting of: Andrew Kohut, Director Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock, Associate Directors Michael Remez, Senior Writer Leah Christian and Jocelyn Kiley, Senior Researchers Robert Suls, Shawn Neidorf, and Alec Tyson, Research Associates Jacob Poushter, Research Analyst Danielle Gewurz, Research Assistant ? Pew Research Center, 2010 10 www.peoplepress.org PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR THE PEOPLE & THE PRESS POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE UPDATE FINAL TOPLINE NOVEMBER 11-14, 2010 N=1001 PEW.1 AND PEW.4 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE READ TO ALL: Next I'd like to ask about some things that have been in the news. Please answer as best you can. If you don't know the answer just tell me and we'll move to the next question. RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.5 Who is likely to be the next Speaker of the House when the new congress convenes in January? Is it [READ AND RANDOMIZE] TREND FOR COMPARISON: Nov 11-14 Dec 4-7 Aug 16-19 2010 20081 2007 38 John Boehner (Correct) 72 Nancy Pelosi (Correct) 74 Nancy Pelosi (Correct) 13 Nancy Pelosi 3 Dennis Hastert 5 Dennis Hastert 4 Newt Gingrich 3 Barbara Boxer 7 Barbara Boxer 7 Mitch McConnell 3 Eric Holder 5 Scooter Libby 38 DK/Refused (VOL.) 19 DK/Refused (VOL.) 9 DK/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.6 Can you tell me who the Prime Minister of Great Britain is? Is it… [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 Jul 1-5 Apr 30-Jun 1 2010 2010 2008 15 David Cameron (Correct) 19 28 Gordon Brown (Correct) 2 Angela Merkel 2 5 Rupert Murdoch 18 Tony Hayward 17 4 Robert Gates 5 Richard Branson 4 5 John Howard 60 DK/Ref (VOL.) 57 58 DK/Ref (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.7 Are relations between India and Pakistan generally considered to be…[READ IN ORDER] Nov 11-14 2010 12 Friendly 41 Unfriendly (Correct) 20 Neutral 27 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) ASK PEW.8 AND PEW.9 IN ORDER AS A PAIR, RANDOMIZE WITH OTHER ITEMS ASK ALL: PEW.8 Generally, which political party was regarded as doing best in the midterm elections last week? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 10 Democrats 75 Republicans (Correct) 15 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 1 For December 4-7, 2010 and August 16-19, 2007 the question read: "Do you happen to know the name of the current Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives?" 11 www.peoplepress.org ASK PEW.8 AND PEW.9 IN ORDER AS A PAIR, RANDOMIZE WITH OTHER ITEMS ASK ALL: PEW.9 When the new Congress convenes in January, will Republicans have a majority in… [READ IN ORDER] Nov 11-14 2010 46 The House of Representatives (Correct) 8 The Senate 14 Both the House and Senate 5 Neither the House nor the Senate 27 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.10 The federal government loaned money to banks under the bank bailout program known as TARP. How much of that money has been paid back to the government? [READ; READ CATEGORIES IN REVERSE ORDER FOR HALF THE SAMPLE] Nov 11-14 2010 4 All of it 16 More than half of it (Correct) 36 Less than half of it 16 None of it 28 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) NO QUESTIONS PEW.11-PEW.12 RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.13 In the past few years, have people in the U.S. bought more foreign goods than we have sold overseas, or have we sold more than we have bought, or has it pretty much balanced out? Nov 11-14 Feb 1-13 May 2010 20072 1989 64 Bought more foreign goods than sold (Correct) 68 81 4 Sold more overseas than bought 7 5 11 Balanced out 9 6 20 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 16 8 RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.14 Compared to the 1990s, is the current federal budget deficit [RANDOMIZE: larger, smaller] or is it no different? Nov 11-14 2010 77 Larger (Correct) 3 Smaller 9 No different 11 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 2 For February 1-13, 2007 and May, 1989 the question read: "…Have people in the U.S. bought more foreign goods than we have sold to people overseas, or have we sold more to them than we have bought, or has it pretty much balanced out?" 12 www.peoplepress.org RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.15 Do you happen to know which company operated the oil well that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico last spring? [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 88 BP (Correct) 2 Exxon/Mobil 1 Chevron 1 Shell 7 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.16 Do you happen to know the name of the Google operating system for smartphones? Is it… [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 26 Android (Correct) 8 iPhone 4 Windows Mobile 8 Blackberry 54 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.17 On which of these activities does the US government currently spend the most money? Is it… [READ AND RANDOMIZE] Nov 11-14 2010 39 National defense (Correct) 4 Education 15 Medicare 23 Interest on the national debt 19 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.18 Do you happen to know if the national inflation rate reported by the government is closer to…[READ IN ORDER] Nov 11-14 2010 14 1% (Correct) 15 5% 15 10% 7 20% 49 Don't know/Refused (VOL.) 13 www.peoplepress.org RANDOMIZE PEW.5-PEW.19 ASK ALL: PEW.19 Do you happen to know if the national unemployment rate as reported by the government is currently closer to [READ IN ORDER]? Nov 11-14 Jul 1-5 Jan 14-17 Oct 1-4 Mar 26-29 2010 2010 20103 2009 2009 3 5% 3 2 4 3 4% 53 10% (Correct) 54 55 53 53 8% (Correct) 16 15% 16 15 15 24 12% 11 20% 10 15 18 18 16% 17 DK/Refused (VOL.) 18 12 10 2 DK/Refused (VOL.) ASK ALL: PARTY In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? ASK IF ANSWERED 3, 4, 5 OR 9 IN PARTY: PARTYLN As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? (VOL.) (VOL.) No Other (VOL.) Lean Lean Republican Democrat Independent preference party DK/Ref Rep Dem Nov 11-14, 2010 26 29 33 8 1 4 14 14 3 For January 14-17, 2010 and before the question did not include the phrase: "… as reported by the government…"