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    ISSN 1518-3548
    ISSN 1518-3548 CGC 00.038.166/0001-05
    Working Paper Series
    Brasília
    n. 100
    Oct
    2005
    P. 1-39
    Working Paper Series
    Edited by Research Department (Depep) – E-mail: workingpaper@bcb.gov.br Editor: Benjamin Miranda Tabak – E-mail: benjamin.tabak@bcb.gov.br Editorial Assistent: Jane Sofia Moita – E-mail: jane.sofia@bcb.gov.br Head of Research Department: Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos – E-mail: marcelo.kfoury@bcb.gov.br The Banco Central do Brasil Working Papers are all evaluated in double blind referee process. Reproduction is permitted only if source is stated as follows: Working Paper n. 100. Authorized by Alexandre Antonio Tombini, Deputy Governor of Special Studies, and Afonso Sant'Anna Bevilaqua, Deputy Governor of Economic Policy.
    General Control of Publications Banco Central do Brasil Secre/Surel/Dimep SBS – Quadra 3 – Bloco B – Edifício-Sede – M1 Caixa Postal 8.670 70074-900 Brasília – DF – Brazil Phones: (5561) 3414-3710 and 3414-3567 Fax: (5561) 3414-3626 E-mail: editor@bcb.gov.br
    The views expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banco Central or its members. Although these Working Papers often represent preliminary work, citation of source is required when used or reproduced.
    As opinies expressas neste trabalho so exclusivamente do(s) autor(es) e no refletem, necessariamente, a viso do Banco Central do Brasil. Ainda que este artigo represente trabalho preliminar, citao da fonte é requerida mesmo quando reproduzido parcialmente.
    Banco Central do Brasil Information Bureau Address: Secre/Surel/Diate SBS – Quadra 3 – Bloco B Edifício-Sede – 2 subsolo 70074-900 Brasília – DF – Brazil Phones: DDG: Fax: Internet: E-mails: (5561) 3414 (....) 2401, 2402, 2403, 2404, 2405, 2406 0800 992345 (5561) 3321-9453 http://www.bcb.gov.br cap.secre@bcb.gov.br dinfo.secre@bcb.gov.br
    Targets and in ation dynamics y
    Sergio A. L. Alvesz Waldyr D. Areosax Central Bank of Brazil October 2005

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