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北京市汽车限行的环境和经济效益分析
赵峰侠1, 2
徐明1
齐晔3
(1. 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所 生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101 ;
2. 中国科学院 研究生院,北京 100039 ;
3. 清华大学 公共管理学院,北京 100084)
摘要:运用汽车全生命周期方法分析北京市车辆限行政策的环境和经济效益.结果显示,北京市限行具有微弱的环境
效益,温室气体减排量60.2万吨/年,相当于北京市2007年二氧化碳总排放量的0.4%,污染物减排量8.6万吨/年,其中减
排CO 7.5万吨/年,减排NOx(NO2)0.9万吨/年,减排SOx(SO2)0.2万吨/年.按照碳交易价格和国内排污费征收标准
折合成经济效益,也只相当于节省0.57亿元/年,但是该政策将造成直接经济损失84亿元/年.即使扣除环境效益节省的
资金,仍亏损83.43亿元/年,经济损失远远大于获得的环境效益.根据北京市新车增长的趋势,限行带来的环境和社会
效益很快会被新增车辆抵消.因此认为,有效控制北京市汽车温室气体和污染物排放,不应该限制已有汽车的使用,
而应该最大程度发挥现有汽车的使用.通过经济和政治手段,逐步限制新入户的汽车来抑制新增车辆,增加税收来加
强污染防治与治理;通过完善公共交通体系和道路系统,满足用车需求和限制汽车保有量过快增长.
关键词:汽车限行;环境效益;经济效益;全生命周期;温室气体;污染物
文献引用:赵峰侠,徐明,齐晔. 北京市汽车限行的环境和经济效益分析[J]. 生态经济,2010(12):40~44.
中图分类号:F542;U4-9 文献标识码:A
The Environmental and Economic Benets of Automotive Restrictions in Beijing
ZHAO Fengxia1, 2
, XU Ming1
, QI Ye3
(1. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling Institute of Geographic Science and
Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
3. School of Public Policy & Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)
Abstract: We examine the environmental and economic benefits of vehicle restrictions in Beijing using the full life cycle
method. The results show that the vehicle restrictions in Beijing has weak environmental benets that the greenhouse gas emission
reductions is 602,000 tons per year, equivalent to 0.4% of total carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing in 2007, and pollutant
emission reductions were 86,000 tons per year, of which CO emissions is 75,000 tons per year, and NOx (NO2) emissions is
9,000 tons per year, and SOx (SO2) emissions is 2,000 tons per year. Based on the carbon trading price and the levied standard of
domestic sewage charges, we convert these environmental benets into economic benets, and only the equivalent of saving is 57

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